African Affairs 102:81-107 (2003)
© 2003 The Royal African Society
Article |
Analyzing Apartheid: how accurate were US intelligence estimates of South Africa, 1948–94?
Jeffrey Herbst is Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University.
The domestic political situation in South Africa was an issue of concern for US policymakers, and thus for the American intelligence community, from 1948 to 1994. This paper uses recently declassified intelligence assessments of South Africa to evaluate how successful American analysts were in predicting the evolution of apartheid in the uncertain mediumterm. I find that, contrary to much of the literature on US–South Africa relations specifically and American foreign policy more generally, the global superpower struggle did not prevent American intelligence officials from presenting their consumers — starting with the President — with a relatively accurate description of events in South Africa and with forecasts that were not noticeably different from other predictions, including those made by academics.